Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
