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Iranian authorities are weighing the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Afghani migrants across its western frontiers into Iraq and Turkey. This step forms part of what officials describe as a necessarily more aggressive and unexpected approach following the attacks on its nuclear facilities and the European reimposition of UN sanctions.

Multi-Pronged Offensive Includes Expansion of Missile Programme

The multi-pronged offensive includes expansion of its missile programme, strengthening air defences, suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and, on October 18, preventing the formation of a UN committee to oversee the administration of the restored penalties. Officials remain opposed to reopening talks with the United States, believing the talks would fail.

Migrant Warning Mirrors Erdoğan's Warning

The threat to send refugees towards the west as well as the east has echoes of the warning issued by the Turkish president, President Erdoğan, who threatened to send countless Syrian migrants towards Europe.

Iran has at times been host to as many as 6 million Afghani migrants, but Amnesty International reports that in 2025, one million Afghans have been sent back to Afghanistan, having fled either due to poverty or Taliban rule.

The organization alleged the mass expulsions had been scaled up in the wake of the June 12 Israeli strikes on Iran’s leadership and nuclear sites. It estimates 500,000 Afghans have been sent back over the border since June.

Legal Status Changes for Migrants

Until March 2025, several million Afghans had been permitted to temporarily legalise their stay in Iran by securing a registration paper. Holders of this permit were eligible for limited services, such as public health services, schooling, employment permits, financial services and the right to make rental agreements. But the authorities invalidated these registration papers.

The Iranian authorities have given different figures about the number of Afghan refugees in the nation, but estimates suggest a at least two million reside without legal status. The UN refugee agency forecasts that as many as four million Afghans may be sent back to Afghanistan this year.

Comprehensive Plan of Repair and Recovery Under Way

A wide-ranging reconstruction effort is ongoing in the country, including a discussion about the tools it possesses to protect itself after the joint strikes by Israel and the US in the summer. Iran has recalled its ambassadors from France, Germany and the UK for discussions at the Iranian foreign office about the crisis.

Authorities are hesitant about leaving the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, in part because the significant measures were already implemented to end co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Diplomatic Proposals and International Response

Iranian officials confirm that in discussions with the French at the United Nations meeting, Iran offered to permit nuclear monitors to inspect the damaged facility at Natanz, and also offered to report on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium within 45 days. In return, Iran wanted the threat of the return of United Nations penalties to be lifted permanently, instead of a temporary suspension, the initial proposal from France.

Tehran alleges the United States declined to participate with these offers, which Iran views as an increasingly unstable and amateurish American diplomacy run by Steve Witkoff, a figure viewed by Tehran as either outside the loop or duplicitous. For example, Witkoff had sent the Iranian representatives heading to the UN information about a discussion he was intending to hold with Iran’s diplomats, but he canceled the talks altogether.

Upcoming Diplomatic Clash and Moscow's Position

In the next probable diplomatic clash with the United States, analysts predict that on 18 October Russia, which holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, will use its power as a permanent member to prevent the creation of a United Nations committee to supervise and manage the penalties restored by the European Union.

Moscow and Beijing have already written to the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to state EU nations did not have the right to reimpose the penalties as they did on 28 September, as they believe Europe had exited in the nuclear deal, and had not exhausted the conflict resolution process.

The impasse suggests that some countries will not comply with the implementation of UN penalties. Nations like Japan, Canada, and Turkey have begun to restore the penalties, but countries in the Russian and Chinese orbit will not do so. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, issued a presidential decree mandating financial blocks on Iranian individuals and entities associated with Iran's atomic projects and key government financial institutions.

Effects of Penalties on Iran's Economy

Officials say the most severe penalties on the country are the current American restrictions, and by comparison the restored UN sanctions dating back from from 2006-10 are relatively narrow, since they do not cover Iran's petroleum industry but rather specific asset freezes, weapon restrictions and bans on missile trade.

But Tehran accepts that even the partial return of UN penalties is affecting economic confidence and currency values. The price of the dollar in Iran’s free market has reached an all-time high.