🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.