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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.